Lula claims fourth presidency after late surge in Brazilian runoff

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva secured a record fourth term as Brazil's president on Sunday, defeating right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a tight runoff. Electoral officials declared Lula the winner with more than 51 percent of the vote against Bolsonaro's 48 percent, a result confirmed after 98.76 percent of ballots were tallied. The 80-year-old leftist becomes the first candidate in nearly four decades to win a presidential term after finishing second in the first round.

The victory caps a rapid turnaround for Lula. Just three weeks ago, on October 4, Bolsonaro led the first round with 47.03 percent of the vote, narrowly beating Lula's 45.16 percent. A gap of 2.2 million votes separated the two men in that initial count. In the days following, Lula focused on winning back abstaining voters and emphasizing the cost of living, while Bolsonaro relied on support from the south, southeast, and center-west regions. Lula's final lead emerged as results from the northeast, a traditional stronghold for his Workers' Party, were counted.

The final hours of voting were marked by logistical disputes and a judicial intervention that complicated the tally. Voting was scheduled to end at 5 p.m. Brasilia time, but Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered polling stations to remain open until 7 p.m. The order came after some stations had already closed and shut down their machines, leading to confusion and reports of voters being turned away. Zanin later clarified that stations which had already closed would not reopen. Both campaigns had requested the extra time; Lula's team cited transport cuts that hindered lower-income voters, while Bolsonaro's camp pointed to heavy rain and flooding. In Minas Gerais, local media reported that 349 polling locations experienced power outages, though voting machines operated on backup batteries.

Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged to annul the vote, accusing Zanin of judicial malfeasance. "He changes the rules of the game mid-game," Bolsonaro said. He also noted that Lula appointed Zanin to the Supreme Court in 2023, when Zanin served as Lula's personal lawyer. "It is impossible to recognise the results of the election," Bolsonaro told supporters. Brazil's Federal Police are investigating alleged transport disruptions in five states, and a court in Salvador ordered the arrest of the city's transport secretary over claims he directed bus service cuts.

Turnout appears to have influenced the final margin. Andrei Roman, head of polling firm AtlasIntel, identified a drop in abstention as a factor in Lula's victory. In the first round, an estimated 33.4 million Brazilians, or 21 percent of the electorate, did not vote, the highest abstention rate in a general election since 1998. Lula also made late pledges to his working-class base, including a promise to pursue free public transport on weekends.

The result complicates US President Donald Trump's influence in Latin America, where right-wing candidates have recently won elections. Reuters reported on Saturday that State Department officials had pushed for sanctions against Brazil to weaken Lula. Asked on Sunday whom he wanted to win, Trump said, "I don't want to get into that, but we are watching." In his victory speech, Lula said he had to "overcome interference coming from the outside," calling the election a defeat for denialism and lies.

Donald Trump Jr. criticized the voting extension on social media. Monica Yanakiew, a correspondent for Al Jazeera, described the judicial system as very divided and stated that significant political negotiation will be required to resolve the post-election disputes.