Brazil Election: Lula Secures Fourth Term in Narrow Runoff

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won a fourth nonconsecutive term as president of Brazil.

The 80-year-old leader from the Workers’ Party secured 51.79% of the vote against 48.21% for his opponent, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The margin represented a difference of approximately 4.3 million votes among the nation’s 159 million registered voters. Results were declared just after midnight UK time on Sunday.

The victory marked a sharp reversal from the first round held earlier in October. In that initial vote, Bolsonaro captured 56.1 million votes, or 47.03%, compared to Lula’s 53.8 million, or 45.16%. No candidate who placed second in the first round since Brazil’s return to democracy in 1985 had previously won the subsequent runoff. Polling data indicated that the race tightened to a fraction of a percentage point in the weeks following the first ballot.

The campaign was defined by a surge in digital mobilization for the incumbent. Progressives organized through a WhatsApp group known as “Lula’s army” to distribute content. Lula, who recently acquired his first smartphone, began posting on Instagram and TikTok. His digital reach eventually surpassed that of his rival. Conversely, Bolsonaro’s campaign faced scrutiny over its use of social media platforms. A dozen watchdog groups alleged that Meta favored the senator’s campaign. Brazil’s electoral court ordered the company to avoid unequal treatment between candidates, a move Meta described as unfounded.

Political columnist Bernardo Mello Franco of O Globo noted that the far-right movement, Bolsonarismo, had established deep roots in Brazilian society. He pointed to the expansion of evangelical Christianity and voter frustration with urban crime as factors supporting Bolsonaro. The senator’s campaign also faced a scandal late in the race when the magazine Piauí reported that he attended a boat party during the 2020 pandemic with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists. Lula’s team highlighted the incumbent’s record on environmental policy, noting a 70% reduction in Amazon deforestation during his current term.

Flávio Bolsonaro refused to concede the result immediately after the count. He cited the decision to extend voting hours by two on election day as a reason for his position, though both campaigns had requested the extension. Lula called the outcome “a defeat for denialism.” The senator’s father, Jair Bolsonaro, is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after his loss in the 2022 election.

The result has drawn congratulations from international leaders, including those in Latin America. Donald Trump, who did not formally endorse Flávio Bolsonaro, had previously imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports. He had labeled the trial of Jair Bolsonaro a witch hunt. Lula has positioned himself as a defender against what he termed “colonial” designs by the United States, rejecting an invitation to join a military coalition against drug cartels that would have increased US involvement on Brazilian soil.

Lula takes office ahead of a newly elected congress that includes a record number of right-wing politicians. His environmental agenda faces potential resistance from these legislators. The next major electoral event in the region is scheduled for Tuesday in Israel, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government seeks to retain power.

The Brazilian president turns 81 on Tuesday, the same day Israel holds its parliamentary elections.