Filber Polls Drive Likud Rift Over Netanyahu

Likud leadership is split over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's chances of winning on Tuesday. With voting set for October 27, party members are debating whether internal forecasts justify confidence or caution.

The division centers on the work of Shlomo Filber, who manages the party's internal polls. One Likud source described the internal mood as mixed. "We have some who are very sure of themselves, and some who are less so," the source said. Regarding Filber's projections, the source added, "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other."

A primary concern for Likud is the scale of financial support flowing to rival camps through outside organizations. Party sources claim nonprofits are injecting large sums to boost turnout for opponents. This effort included social media campaigns, physical signage, field events, and transportation services for Arab voters. The group also organized flights for Israelis living abroad to return and cast ballots.

A Likud source labeled this spending drive "the nonprofits affair on steroids." The party argues these groups create a support network that bypasses standard party financing rules. Likud also criticized the Central Elections Committee for focusing on video limits and public resource use while ignoring these outside actors. Sources did not provide specific funding figures or documentation proving the activity broke the law.

Likud is preparing a large-scale ground operation for Election Day. Despite rules limiting information sharing from polling stations, the party aims to prevent right-wing votes from splitting among smaller factions. Negotiations to convince Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, head of the People of Israel party, to withdraw from the race failed. Rabbi Eli Sadan, involved in the talks, later issued a statement supporting Winter.

The party is also courting supporters of the joint ticket led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. Separately, Rabbi Abergel's Ahi party has already dropped out of the race. During talks with Likud, the Ahi party discussed legislation that would allow it to name a deputy minister. A survey published days before the vote indicated that nearly one-third of Israeli voters remained undecided.